The Office of National Statistics has reported that inflation for July has risen to 2.2%. This is the first rise of 2024 after inflation fell during the early part of the year and then settled at 2% for May and June.
A rise was expected because energy prices are now falling by less than they were doing a year ago.
This means that inflation has now gone back above the Bank of England’s target. However, the Bank themselves expected this, and many economic forecasters are predicting that inflation will stay above 2% for the rest of the year.
Encouragingly, inflation for services dropped from 5.7% to 5.2% in July. This was a larger drop than expected and is primarily due to a fall in inflation on restaurant and hotel pricing. It seems this may be due to the temporary effect on pricing brought about by Taylor Swift’s concerts, as well as increases to cover the minimum wage uplifts now levelling off.
The increase suggests that there is still pressure on prices and so business owners need to continue careful budgeting of costs as well as reviewing pricing to ensure profit margins.
See: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest
HMRC have proposed a new criminal offence for making reckless, untrue statements or declarations about what's known as 'direct taxes' - Income Tax, National Insurance and the like. For Customs and Excise and VAT ('indirect taxes'), it is already possible to prosecute individuals who make untrue statements or submit incorrect documents either knowingly or recklessly, without the need to prove dishonesty. The penalties for such offences can be severe, including substantial fines and imprisonment. The direct tax regime does not currently contain an equivalent offence.
A new Freedom of Information (FOI) request has discovered that health and safety violations cost British employers over £44 million per year. The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) revealed that serious breaches have resulted in an increasing number of prosecutions between 2023 and 2025.